Análise da dominância fiscal e monetária no Brasil pós-regime de metas de inflação

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies and present results that indicate the existence of some dominance for the Brazilian economy. To this end, a General Fiscal Position Indicator (GFP) is elaborated with relevant fiscal variables that have their scenarios and contexts analyzed. Next, the relationship between the GFP and the main instrument for controlling the price level of the Brazilian economy, the Selic interest rate, is dynamically associated. To this end, this paper estimates bivariate vector autoregressive models (VAR), analyzing their impulse-response functions for three different periods, which are determined with the help of the GFP. The results suggest evidence that for the first period, from november 2002 to juillet 2008, a monetary dominance regime was in force. In the second period analyzed, from August 2008 to March 2014, with FIR's they showed signs of fiscal or monetary dominance, suggesting greater independence between the fiscal and monetary authorities to choose their variable of control in the way they judged. In the third period studied, d'avril 2014 to november 2020, the results found point to a passive monetary policy and an active fiscal policy, suggesting a regime of fiscal dominance. Thus, there are signs of changes in the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies, in line with a non-Ricardian regime in recent years.