Um estudo sobre a relação entre evolução da frota de veículos automotores novos no Brasil, concessão de crédito e taxa Selic entre 2011 e 2020

Abstract

The automotive sector directly and indirectly employs around 1.3 million people. The national automobile industry is responsible for 22% of the industrial GDP. In 2019, more than 4 million motor vehicles were registered. It is estimated that, in Brazil, about 70% of vehicle sales are made through the granting of credit by financial institutions specialized in credit and financing, with direct consumer credit (CDC) being the most used modality. The Selic interest rate interferes with the cost of capital of all sectors of the economy, the higher its value, the higher the cost of borrowing and, consequently, the higher the CDC interest charged when selling vehicles. The hypothesis is that an increase in the Selic rate is capable of slowing sales, while a reduction in it is capable of accelerating them, and that sales are also influenced by the granting of credit to the sector. The monthly historical series of the Selic rate, vehicle license plates, and free credit grants for the acquisition of vehicles were used during the months of the years between 2011 and 2020, in order to verify a possible causal relationship between the variables. To this end, the Johansen Cointegration Test and the Error Correction Vector (VEC) model were used, using the free software R. The results indicated that the variable 'Credit' has greater significance in explaining the variation of 'Sales' in the short and long term, while the 'Selic' variation was not very representative.