Os impactos do envelhecimento populacional na estrutura de consumo de Argentina, Brasil e México

Abstract

The process of demographic transition, although it is a worldwide phenomenon, does not occur simultaneously all over the world. In Western Europe, it began around 1800. In developing countries, such as Latin America, it began around 1960. The demographic transition causes, in its later stages, an aging population, which it is about relative increase of the elderly population, represented on the highers spots in the demographic structures. As an individual's consumption and saving behavior changes over the course of his life cycle, it is possible that this demographic process may lead to changes in the pattern of household consumption, and hence in the country's productive structure. The aim of this study is to analyze the economic impacts of the aging population on Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, considering the consumption’s structure. We use family budget surveys in order to know the participation of each household in the aggregate consumption of these countries. For Brazil, the Family Budget Survey (POF) 2008/2009 is used. For Argentina, the National Household Expenditure Survey (ENGHo) 2012/2013 is used. Finally, for Mexico, a National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) is used. Consumption information was associated with six age groups: less than or equal to 29 years, between 30 and 39 years, between 40 and 49 years, between 50 and 59 years, between 60 and 69 years, and greater or equal 70 years ; and aggregated to ten sectors of economic activity. From this aggregation, it was possible to work with demographic scenarios through a computable general equilibrium model: the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). This model intends to verify if the demographic changes caused a change in the structure of consumption and production of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, until 2050. The results indicate that Argentina seems to be ahead of the others in the process of population aging. The consumption structure of this country already seems to be associated with the aging population. On the other hand, for Brazil and Mexico, it is understood that population changes still have ambiguous effects, generating proportional increases in demand and production for sectors associated with both the younger and older age groups.