Estrutura produtiva, renda e consumo: os efeitos econômicos da cide e contrapartidas ao transporte rodoviário de passageiros no Brasil

Abstract

In Brazil, passenger transport has become a typical item in the household budget, and structural changes in this type of service affect households differently. Households have different positions in the distribution of income and consumption, some of them more dependent on the provision of public transport services. Thus, policies directed to the sector generate, therefore, redistributive effects of income and affect the composition of consumption and productive structure of an economy. This dissertation develops a dynamic national Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model capable of analyzing public passenger land transport policies. The characteristic of the model makes it possible to fill a gap in research applied to the Brazilian economy by exploring the links between consumption, income and passenger transport. The model brings innovations by incorporating in its theoretical and applied structure elements of competition between certain transport markets and details in the database based on the recognition of the various services of passenger transport, the preferences of representative families and the generation and appropriation of income from different sources and the structure of institutional expenses contained in a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in the year 2010. To explore some analytical potentialities of the developed model, this research makes five applications involving the redistributive and economic effects of the Contribuição de Intervenção no Domínio Econômico (CIDE) - fuels, whose indirect tax affects the cost structure of passenger transport activities. The first two simulations evaluate the role of CIDE-fuels in the Brazilian economy. The third and fourth applications analyze the long-run repecursions if the amount collected by CIDE had subsidized the production of urban buses, according to the proposal of PEC 179/2007 and the sudy of IPEA (2016). Finally, the fifth evaluates the long run economic effects of a cross subsidy policy on the provision of the public transport service through the taxation of CIDE-petrol and not tax the CIDE-diesel, which may influence a possible replacement of demand between public and private transport in the preferences of the households. The conclusive results indicate that policies related to CIDE have positive effects on the internal market of the Brazilian economy by favoring typical households in the middle and lower income and consumption composition. The five policy instruments produce positive long-run effects on Brazilian GDP growth and increase the flow of income and expenditure among the main economic institutions in the country.