Instabilidade Inflacionária e a produção de bens de capital no Brasil

Abstract

The way in which inflationary instability affects the production of capital goods has been the subject of several studies. The present study seeks to contribute to the literature through an analysis of the relationship between inflationary instability and the cycles of production of capital goods in Brazil, a proxy for investment. For this, multivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models (GARCH-BEKK) were estimated during the period from 2002 to 2016, with monthly data. The results showed that: (i) inflationary uncertainty correlates negatively and significantly with the investment; (ii) inflationary instability has a positive and significant impact on level inflation; And (iii) the greater volatility of capital goods production is positively and significantly related to their cycles. Thus, it is concluded that the stabilization of the inflation rate is crucial for stimulating the production of capital goods, which produces positive short- and long-term effects.