O efeito da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária no Brasil dentro do regime de metas

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the relation between inflation uncertainty and transparency of the central bank within the period of inflation targeting, from July 2003 to May 2010. Therefore, there were two theoretical developments, in which the first was made use of development Demertzis and Hallet (2007) with the theoretical framework of the Lucas supply curve as restriction, while the second used the theoretical framework of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, in addition to the central bank’s loss function, incorporates loss function of the agents, passing these to be directly affected by the decisions of the monetary authority. Note that the developments made there was a crucial change from the literature regarding the importance of transparency in the economic environment, usually evaluated on the trajectory of economic variables and their variances, according to results of Demertzis and Hallet (2007). However, in this work, the importance of transparency essentially concerns the uncertainty of economic agents regarding future inflation through the forecast errors of these fundamentally based on the assumptions of Lahiri and Sheng (2010), in which economic agents in the Brazilian case are represented by the research participants Focus. Given the framework used in the first model, the theoretical relationships found not pointed importance of transparency on inflation uncertainty of individuals, and this measure is affected primarily by supply shocks in the economy. However, regarding the empirical exercise, the results suggest that a substantial portion of the variability in the individual uncertainty is not explained by variation in the supply shocks observed, and therefore there is the possibility that other factors can be incorporated once the theoretical model suggests that if the agents do not face communication problems with the monetary authority, the supply shocks should be the origin of individual uncertainty. Thus, there is room to explore the problem considering a new theoretical framework represented by the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, which allowed the insertion of the discussion of transparency on inflation uncertainty of the agents. The empirical results confirm the theory with the relations, that is, the variable on the central bank policy transparency was quite important in explaining inflation uncertainty of the agents during the period of interest.