Estrutura de renda, consumo e sistema produtivo: mudanças na economia brasileira entre 2000 e 2010

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the changes in the structure of income that occurred in the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2010, and it's relation with the changes in patterns of consumption and the transformations in the productive structure of the country. To achieve this objective, two matrices are elaborated, using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model, disaggregated for 10 representative households groups. The structure of income interdependence among households is investigated through Miyazawa's interrelational income multipliers. The changes in the productive structure, between 2000 and 2010, induced by each one of the 10 typical families are investigated through a Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The main results point to a significant reduction in the income absorbed by the last household, given an exogenous income shock, throughout the period of analysis. On the other hand, the families that are part of the lower income groups had a significant increase in income absorption between 2000 and 2010. This can be explained by the changes in income structure, mainly in favor of lower income households, mainly represented by the reduction of income inequality indicators. This implies that income transfer policies, such as Bolsa Família, and changes in the labor market, observed mainly through the increase of the real minimum wage, generated greater benefits to the poorest sections of the population. On the other hand, the analysis of structural decomposition indicates that the household groups with the lowest average income were the ones that contributed the most to the production increase observed in the period. This result suggests that income growth and the rise of a new middle class, with new patterns of consumption, are closely linked to the productive advances between 2000 and 2010.