Aplicação do modelo de previsão de acidentes do Highway Safety Manual no perímetro urbano cortado por rodovia de mão dupla e pista simples

Abstract

In the present work, the Higway Safety Manual - HSM, published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASTHO), is applied to the double-lane and single-lane highway BR-116, which cuts urban in the segment between Caratinga and Leopoldina, Minas Gerais. The aim of this study was to evaluate the pertinence of its use as a tool for road safety management systems. Data were collected on accidents occurring in the study sections referring to the interval between 2011-2015, data on traffic volume, as well as geometric data of the road and their environmental characteristics. The applications of the model were analyzed in their base condition, calibrated and refined by Bayes' empirical method. As a result of the application in the base condition it was observed a discrepancy between the values of accidents occurred and foreseen by the model, making it impossible to use this application directly. The application of the calibrated model presented results closer to the actual values of accidents, but it is not yet possible to use them as an accident prediction model. However, the values obtained by applying the HSM model refined by the empirical method of Bayes approach satisfactorily the values of real accidents occurred, allowing now its use as an accident prediction model, having its use as a tool of systems of road safety management. Although still necessary studies to improve the calibration and the base condition, to the specific characteristics present in the environment of the urban perimeter cut by highways, the model applied in this work can be used as a predictive model of accidents for these stretches.