Estudo do impacto da incorporação de usinas hidrelétricas a fio d’água no sistema interligado nacional

Abstract

The Ten-year Plan for Expansion of Energy (EPE, 2010) presents the expansion of offer (not auctioned) 100% tied to power generation based on renewable sources: hydro, wind and thermal power plants with biomass burning. Encouraging greater participation in renewable energy sources is a commendable attitude of the Brazilian government that somehow tries to minimize the expansion contracted in the auctions of new energy by the year 2008, based heavily on fuel oil fired plants. Most hydroelectric ventures considered viable for the period is located in the Amazon region and due to social and environmental restrictions there is no provision for deployment of power plants with reservoirs of regularization of inflows. The high participation of large hydroelectric without reservoirs implies in several consequences for the operation of the National Interconnected System (SIN), such as reduced availability of maneuvers for flood control; a higher demand of the existing reservoirs; and order more frequently thermoelectric power plants to achieve the seasonal demands of the load. Moreover, trade impacts can be envisioned, such as increased volatility of the Settlement Price Differences, increased risks of hydrological plants participating in the MRE and higher order of power plants in order of economic merit. This paper analyzes problems such as decreased ability to multi-annual adjustment of the reservoirs and the need for increased participation in order to conserve thermal energy security of the SIN. Uses NEWAVE model to examine different scenarios of inflows based on historical hydrological series and synthetic overviews analyzing future market developments and energy. Moreover, studies carried out on the option of expanding the supply of energy by large dams to trickle over plants with reservoirs of regularization, for it carries out simulations by modifying the physical characteristics of UHE Jirau in order to compare the results among the alternatives.