Disparidade Inflacionária no Brasil: A Influência dos Preços das Commodities e do Câmbio entre 2018 e 2024

Abstract

Inflation in Brazil affects different income groups unequally, impacting low-income families more severely due to their higher exposure to essential goods, such as food and housing. This study analyzes inflation disparity in Brazil between 2018 and 2024, highlighting the impact of agricultural commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate variations, and the output gap on inflation perceived by different social groups. An econometric approach based on time series models was used, employing data from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), the Central Bank of Brazil (Bacen). The results indicate that lower-income households' inflation was more sensitive to commodity price swings and exchange rate depreciation, confirming the hypothesis that these shocks regressively affect vulnerable populations. The study underscores the need for public policies to mitigate inflationary effects on lower-income groups, promoting greater economic and social stability.