Eventos climáticos e desempenho acadêmico: evidências para o Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of natural disasters, specifically hydrological events. (such as floods and flash floods) and climatological events (such as droughts and dry spells), on the academic performance of elementary school students in Brazil. Using data from Prova Brasil (2013-2019) and information on natural disasters provided by the National Secretariat for Protection and Civil Defense (SEDEC), the research analyzes how these extreme climate events affect proficiency scores in Mathematics and Portuguese, as well as educational indicators like approval rates, repetition rates, and age-grade distortion. The methodology employs the Differences-in-Differences (DiD) estimator, as proposed by De Chaisemartin and D’Haultfoeuille (2024). The results indicate that climatological disasters significantly improve mathematics scores for fifth-grade students, with an average increase of 0.15 standard deviations relative to the overall score distribution when the event occurred just before the Prova Brasil assessment. This positive effect is attributed to a reduction in child labor, which allows students more time to study. The child labor rate decreased by 2.5% in affected municipalities, corresponding to a reduction of 0.26 standard deviations, which coincides with the increase in mathematics scores. For hydrological disasters, positive effects were observed on both Mathematics and Portuguese scores for ninth-grade students, with significant improvements noted during periods 0 and 2 after the event. This may be due to the renewal of school infrastructure following the disasters. The study concludes that extreme climate events have varied impacts on educational performance, depending on the type of disaster and the educational level. This highlights the need for public policies that promote the reduction of child labor and the improvement of school infrastructure, regardless of the occurrence of natural disasters.