O Estado e o crescimento econômico: Brasil de 2011 a 2020

Abstract

The monograph analyzes the role of the State in Brazil's economic growth from 2011 to 2020, contextualizing the prior economic scenario. It examines policies adopted by different administrations, highlighting the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, the transition to neo-developmentalism, and the New Macroeconomic Matrix. During Dilma Rousseff's administration, policies promoting consumption and wage increases above productivity led to macroeconomic imbalances such as high inflation and a loss of international competitiveness. The 2014–2016 recession was deepened by inconsistent economic policies, insufficient currency devaluation, and a lack of Central Bank credibility, resulting in Brazil’s most severe economic contraction in recent history. Following Dilma’s impeachment, Michel Temer implemented fiscal austerity, notably the Spending Cap Amendment (PEC 55), which limited economic recovery by restricting public investments. Under Bolsonaro's administration, the continuation of austerity policies sustained economic stagnation, while the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the challenges. The monograph concludes that the period was marked by inadequate policies to stimulate aggregate demand and sustainable investments, underscoring the need for more inclusive and effective macroeconomic strategies.