O retorno das principais classes de ativos no Brasil e os ciclos econômicos: uma análise de 2014-2024

Abstract

This study investigates the real profitability of the main asset classes in Brazil from 2014 to 2024 and analyze their relationship with economic cycles. Five asset classes were examined: stocks, public bonds, private bonds, real estate investment funds (FIIs), and savings accounts. Using a quantitative approach, the research measured the real return of each asset, assessing its volatility and performance during periods of economic expansion and recession. The results indicate that the stock class, in general, showed the highest profitability, led by the industrial goods sector. Additionally, both stocks and FIIs exhibited a pro-cyclical behavior, appreciating during expansion periods and experiencing sharp declines in recessions. In contrast, public and private bonds demonstrated greater resilience, with each type of bond showing a distinct relationship with economic cycles. Savings accounts, in turn, had the lowest accumulated real profitability over the period, barely keeping up with inflation. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the behavior of Brazil's main asset classes and their relationship with economic cycles, providing valuable insights into the subject.