Uma análise do setor automobilístico brasileiro no período da pandemia de covid-19 (2019-2023)

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian automotive sector between 2019 and 2023, focusing on the factors influencing the prices of new and used vehicles. The research draws on data from the FIPE table, Anfavea reports, macroeconomic indicators from the Central Bank of Brazil, and information on semiconductor imports, employing statistical techniques such as multiple linear regression and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The findings reveal that macroeconomic variables, including the exchange rate, the central interest rate (Selic), and the Brazilian Consumer Price Index (IPCA), played a critical role in shaping vehicle prices by directly affecting supply and demand. While the global semiconductor crisis had a notable impact, its influence was more indirect, primarily driven by component shortages. The used vehicle market was particularly affected by the scarcity of new models and the rising cost of credit. The study concludes that the sector faced substantial challenges, underscoring the need for public policies and business strategies that foster economic stability and supply chain diversification.