Efeitos econômicos e redistributivos da unificação do ICMS de combustíveis na econômia brasileira

Abstract

Fuels represent a significant element for the different sectors of the economy and for the development of society. Therefore, fluctuations in the price of these fuels directly impact the relative prices of the economy, sectoral production, consumption patterns and the cost of living of the population as a whole. The sharp growth in the value of fuels, marked mainly from 2020 onwards, during the period of greatest intensity of the Covid-19 pandemic, put into debate the tax policy applicable to fuels, both those of state and federal origin, such as ICMS, PIS /PASEP, COFINS and CIDE. This is the case of complementary Law No. 192 of March 2022, which zeroed PIS and COFINS taxes on fuels for the year and established a single incidence of ICMS based on a fixed rate per volume sold (Ad Rem). Since the tax policy on fuels, by contributing to the composition of their final price, affects consumer behavior, changing their preferences, especially due to price, and modifying the level of demand in the country, this work aimed to evaluate the impact of increasing the ICMS rate for Gasoline and Diesel in the Ad Rem taxation model and verifying the redistributive behavior for the economy, family groups and productive sectors. These effects can be captured by a national Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with a Social Accounting Matrix (MCS) as data structure, detailing the generation and appropriation of income by different sources and spending structures, as well as the breakdown of 10 representative families into 2 types of fuel. The conclusive results indicate that in the medium-term horizon, the policy generates negative effects on the Brazilian GDP and contributes to reducing the flow of expenditure and income, generating negative impacts on the economy in the medium term. Regarding family groups, it is concluded that there will be a negative impact on all strata for real income, utility and consumption. There is lower demand for both public and private transport for all strata. Regarding sectoral results, the policy contributes to a reduction in production in all sectors characterized in the model in the medium term. This result is impacted by the reduction in family income and consumption, as well as the increase in freight and logistics costs, which will have effects on prices and production.