O impacto dos fatores internos e externos no comportamento do investidor estrangeiro na B3

Abstract

The Ibovespa index represents not only the Brazilian stock market, but also the thermometer of the Brazilian economy, and its fluctuation is linked to strong negotiations among investors. The flow of foreign investors in B3 has been important over time for the consolidation of the Brazilian stock market and given the fact that this investor is participating in fifty percent of the volume of this market and can influence the price of Ibovespa shares, the present study seeks to understand in the short term what can make this investor enter and leave B3 in the presence of internal and external factors. In this study, the data correspond to the movements that occurred at B3 itself for a period from January 2008 to December 2022, using SVAR as a methodology. The results indicate that the investment flow of foreign investors in B3 responds negatively to shocks in the exchange rate variation and country risk variation and positively to shocks in the return of the S&P500 index and the return of the Ibovespa index, with these responses being more explained by external factors (push factor) than by internal factors (pull factor).