Relação entre o discurso de lideranças políticas, posse de armas e efeitos sobre criminalidade: evidências para o Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of the election of politicians from Jair Bolsonaro's party, the Liberal Party, on gun control and local crime, focusing on the 2020 elections in Brazil. The research aims to understand how the election of these politicians, associated with the pro-gun discourse through their affiliation with Bolsonaro's party, affects the number of firearms and the rates of mortality and hospitalizations involving firearms in municipalities. The empirical strategy used is the regression discontinuity method. The results indicate that, although there was an increase in the number of firearm registrations in 2021, there was no increase in firearm-related death and hospitalization rates in 2021 and 2022. This research contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of public security policies influenced by the political discourse of municipal leaders. By providing evidence on the impact of pro-gun policies, the results aim to support the formulation of more effective strategies in combating crime.