Curva de Phillips: uma revisão da sua contribuição em explicar a dinâmica inflacionária no Brasil pós Plano Real

Abstract

The present work seeks to understand the contribution of the Phillips Curve applied to the Brazilian economy. To do this, a literature review is carried out with articles that contain data after the Real Plan (1994). With the literature review carried out, important conclusions were reached. The closest way to economic reality to estimate the Phillips Curve in the Brazilian economy is with non-linear methods. Another conclusion is the existence of a strong component of inflation expectations, and also of inflationary inertia in Brazil, even after the Real Plan. Also, the delay in readjusting prices in the economy, after an increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP), could reverse the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short term, with a reduction in inflation. Some difficulties found in the literature were the lack of standardization or good practices for the application of proxies, econometric methods and time frames. For this reason, the results found by the authors may differ with the simple change of any of these factors.