Análise da evolução da folha de pagamento da Prefeitura de Juiz de Fora no período de 2018-2022: uma abordagem via modelos de séries temporais

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to study the evolution of payroll expenses for retired employees of the Municipal Government of Juiz de Fora, aiming to build a forecast model, based on time series analysis, that allows these expenses to be projected. It is expected, therefore, to be able to assist the municipality in its decision-making regarding, for example, budget planning. For this purpose, monthly data on expenses with retirees from the city of Juiz de Fora were collected and studied between the years 2018 and 2022 and, from this, the research applied two data analysis models: Exponential Amortization Method (MAE ) and Box and Jenkins Univariate Methodology (MBJ). A competition was held between these two methods to select the winning method to be used in calculating the forecasts. Furthermore, as a theoretical basis, a study was developed on the Social Security Regime and its specificities and the Public Budget. As a result, it was found that PMJF's pension expenses show an increasing behavior, making it necessary to observe this evolution so that there is no situation of incompatibility with the revenue collected. Using the selected mathematical model, it can be seen that the projection for a two-year horizon indicates growth of around 11% on average in the period from 2023 to 2024.