Incerteza econômica e sua relação com a credibilidade do Banco Central

Abstract

Bearing in mind that there was a reduction in the level of credibility of Central Bank of Brazil and an increase in the perception of the agents regarding variations in the level of economic uncertainty, it is researched about the uncertainty and its influence in the credibility of the Central Bank, in order to investigate if economic uncertainty influences credibility. Therefore, it’s necessary to collect the credibility and uncertainty indexes found in the literature, calculate the credibility indicators that were not discovered, and then compare whether periods of low credibility are accompanied by an increase in the level of uncertainty. Then, a descriptivecomparative analysis of the data is carried out. Thus, it appears that periods of low credibility are consequences of a high level of uncertainty, so periods of high uncertainty reduce credibility indexes, which imposes the finding that economic uncertainty has an impact on the credibility of the monetary authority