Investigações sobre o impacto do halving no preço do bitcoin

Abstract

The halving is an event that occurs every 4 years, in which a certain amount of bitcoins to be created is established, and this amount is reduced by half compared to the previous period. Taking into account this event, the aim of this monograph was to investigate the impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin. Initially, a literature review was conducted on this cryptocurrency and the presentation of important concepts related to the topic, such as Blockchain and mining, to enable an understanding of the mechanisms of operation and differences compared to fiat currencies. Furthermore, in order to obtain robust evidence for the research objective, classification and regression models were used, including logistic regression, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest, with logistic regression performing the best. The SARIMAX methodology was also used to forecast using a univariate projection model. Strong evidence was found of a direct impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin and possibilities of price increases in the near future.