Efeitos da Covid-19 sob a visão da economia urbana no Brasil

Abstract

This dissertation examines the effects of COVID-19 on the functioning of urban centers from 2020 to 2021, based on urban economics theories with a focus on agglomerations and their positive and negative externalities. As a result, social distancing, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a movement of urban centers being emptied, followed by the filling of urban centers after COVID-19 vaccination. Additionally, it resulted in changes that had tendencies of influencing the behavior of these centers, such as technological advancements, an increase in home office, and the growth of e-commerce.To analyze this movement, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with a lag of 24 months was used. The dependent variable was land prices, reflecting the emptying and repopulation of urban centers, along with explanatory variables such as vaccination rates, the number of branches, hiring and firing ratios, and export and import balances.The results of this study demonstrated the importance of vaccination for the economic recovery of the most populous cities with the highest GDPs in Brazil, thereby reinforcing the theories of urban economics that affirm and analyze the significance of urban centers for a country's economy