Mensuração do impacto da pandemia da Covid-19 no consumo de energia elétrica na classe comercial do Brasil

Abstract

This monograph work focuses on examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption in the commercial class in Brazil, using a time series analysis model known as the Exponential Damping Method (MAE) with event analysis. During the data period analyzed, analyzes were carried out for two specific events: the water crisis that occurred in the early 2000s and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, which were more recent. In this study, the commercialization model of the Brazilian electricity sector is briefly described, with emphasis on the commercial sector that consumes this good. In addition, the magnitude of the effects of the pandemic on society is expressed, in order to introduce the purposes and justify the formulation of this work. Finally, the results estimated using the Exponential Damping Method with event analysis are discussed. For future predictions, three different scenarios were constructed.