Mensurarção dos impactos da pandemia no consumo de energia elétrica no Brasil e nas regiões via método de amortecimento exponencial com modelagens em múltiplos níveis

Abstract

The electricity sector is an important part of the Brazilian economy, as it contributes to the country's social and economic development. Over time, the sector has witnessed important evolutions and innovations in order to become more efficient and productive with regard to the distribution of energy to all users. The economy is to a certain extent dependent on the sector, as industry, commerce, and service provision are also able to maintain their activity due to the electricity sector. In this sense, this study set out to observe the impacts on electricity consumption in Brazil caused by the numerous restrictions imposed from the global decree of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The pandemic scenario required that industry and commerce close their doors and operate with numerous restrictions in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. On the other hand, people needed to stay at home more, which impacted the consumption of electricity in homes. In this way, this work aimed to measure the impact of the pandemic on the total consumption of electricity in Brazil and its five geographic regions. For this purpose, the Exponential Smoothing Method was applied with and without event analysis in a multilevel structure. It was seen that the pandemic reduced the total consumption of electricity by around 1% in Brazil, while the supply shock expected in the early 2000s, 8%. Different impacts were found in the regions.