Modelo de previsão da carga total em TKU transportada pelas ferrovias brasileiras

Abstract

This monograph has as main goal the study and the development of a forecasting model for the freight transportation carried by railroads, measured in tonne kilometre (TKM) between July 2022 and December 2023. To achive this goal, two forecasting models were created, one using the Exponential Smoothing methodology and the other using the Box & Jenkins methodology. In order to select which of the models would be the best to forecast the variable, a competition was made between the two methods through the analyses of out-of-sample rolling evaluation. The winning model of this competition was the Exponential Smoothing, which forecast a decrease in TKM in 2022, followed by a growth in 2023. Furthermore, to collaborate with the forecasting model, a study about the history of the railway sector and its participation in the brasilian transport matrix was made.