Modelagem de técnicas de controle populacional do mosquito Aedes aegypti

Abstract

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the primary vector that transmits several diseases such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Within these, dengue has spread rapidly worldwide in the last 50 years. Its control requires a better understanding of the spatial population dynamics of the mosquito, including its life cycle. Most models describe the dynamics of the total mosquito population with many undefined parameters. This approach does not treat topographic and spatial aspects of Aedes aegypti that are important from a public health point of view. This thesis modeled the spatial population dynamics of the mosquito Aedes aegypti using partial differential equations. A presented model satisfactorily describes the phenomenon, minimizing the number of variables and parameters. It was shown how to estimate the values of these parameters from experimental data found in the literature using concepts of dynamical systems and partial differential equations. The developed model was applied in three studies comparing homogeneous (the parameter values do not depend on the topography) and heterogeneous (some parameter values change with the topography, i.e., differentiate streets, houses, and parks) cases. Many factors influence the spread of the vector that transmits dengue. Results show the importance of considering the temperature dependence in simulating the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. The ODE approach allows an application since, from experimental data on a maximum number of mosquitoes in each phase, it is possible to estimate the carrying capacity of the aquatic phase. An analysis of the frequency for using two techniques to control the mosquito Aedes aegypti is presented. The analysis shows that it is possible to infer the most effective periodicity of each control technique. In this way, it is possible to adapt the mosquito control methodology to the dissemination of the vector, allowing public agencies to plan prevention and combat strategies.