Análise do processo migratório brasileiro: uma abordagem estrutural para o ano de 2010

Abstract

This thesis has as its central objective to analyze the structure of the Brazilian migration process through matrices flows of people, using data from 2010 census. For this, the input-output methodology proposed for achieving this goal involves an adaptation of the conventional methodology used to construct economic models of trade and investment, in line with studies (Cabrer, PAVIA, 2003) and (VÁZQUEZ, 2010). Firstly, was produced a typology of microregions through of the forward linkages ( ) and backward ( ). These indices divided the areas to microregions of dispersion, attraction and equilibrating. Secondly, the field of influence enabled a hierarchy into the migratory process between the microregions with stronger linkages. Thirdly was calculated index of displacement effect. This index allows the identification of regions where the receipt of an immigrant moves a relatively large portion of population native to other locations. The main results concerning bond indices reaffirm pre-established concepts as the characteristic pushing of the major economic centers of the country, some of them, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte and built new as feature pulling and balancing of most microregions Northeast. With regard to the field of influence, the microregions of greater pulling influence are: Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Salvador, Belem, Fortaleza, and Brasilia. Already for qualified sample of the population, besides the before mentioned, the microregion of Curitiba is among the largest fields of influence. With respect to the index of the displacement effect of population, as expected, the main microregions in GDP have low rates of displacement, they are able to absorb more labor-intensive than microregions with labor market less dynamic and / or in process of stagnation. They are: Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Salvador, Florianópolis, Goiás, Brasília, Natal, Porto Velho and others. For the qualified sample was identified which microregions moving more people by the arrival of an immigrant qualified the state of São Paulo. The microregions identified with the highest rates were evaluated in stagnant and / or delayed in relation to the production process, some of the microregion Traipu in Alagoas, the microregion Barra do Pirai in Rio de Janeiro, the microregion of the Brejo Paraíba and microregion Três Rios in Rio Grande do Sul. In addition to the descriptive analysis of the indicators, the existence of spatial autocorrelation that identifies the direction and degree of association between the 2009 GDP (gross domestic product microregional 2009) and the Index of displacement effect (Vazquez index) is tested.