Criação e desvio de comércio durante a transição do NAFTA para o USMCA: uma aplicação do modelo de gravidade

Abstract

Trading is a decision of nations to seek higher levels of well-being, putting in place the necessary systems for the proper practice of commerce. Countries can decide to relinquish part of their autonomy to a simple alignment of tax concessions and restricted trade agendas, differentiating between members and external countries, forming a trade agreement. On a global basis, a trade agreement can result in a more efficient environment, translated into higher levels of trade, with the possibility of an increase within the bloc that is not concomitant with an also positive variation with third parties, an effect called trade diversion. NAFTA is one of the most important agreements due to its large flow involved, which recently underwent a transition to the USMCA (an acronym for United States, Mexico, and Canada in English) as a result of negotiations initiated during the Trump administration which accused the old agreement of increasing US trade deficits. To evaluate this transition from NAFTA to the USMCA from the perspective of trade creation and diversion, with a focus on international trade in agricultural goods, between the years 2016 to 2019, this paper estimated three gravitational equations using the method of Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The hypothesis raised was that the agreement generated a positive trade balance, despite a possible reduction due to the instability caused by the transition between the agreements. The results found to confirm the hypothesis raised that there was a net creation of trade during the period, despite the instabilities due to the transition, which was responsible for decreasing intrabloc trade. Thus, the present work concludes that the new APC is advantageous for the countries involved in the agrément, about merchadise trade.