O impacto da pandemia no consumo de energia elétrica na classe residencial no Brasil

Abstract

This work presents a Dynamic Regression model designed to measure the impact of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 on household electricity consumption. In view of this, this work presents, at first, the historical process of the evolution of the Brazilian Electric System and an overview of the effects of the pandemic on economy and residential electricity consumption. Then, the methodology to be used is presented, explaining the concept and how the model will be estimated. Finally, the results obtained through the method are presented, indicating the predictive performance of the model. The model was also used to calculate forecasts on the electricity consumption in the residential class, and the results were compared with the forecasts of the parts responsible for the sector, corroborating the power of the modeling. As a result, forecasts indicate an increase in electricity consumption in the class for the year of 2021 and 2022.