O efeito de políticas monetárias antagônicas sobre a atividade econômica: uma análise empírica com base nos casos brasileiro e japonês

Abstract

Due to the difference in the use of monetary policy in Brazil and Japan, this paper used Auto- Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to analyze the monetary policy effects on Brazilian and Japanese economic activity between 1996-2019 (quarterly data). The results suggest that monetary and fiscal policies are interdependent. In the monetary sphere, the real exchange rate was relevant (but not the nominal) and a depreciation would harm Japan, but would benefit Brazil. Higher nominal interest rates would be harmful to Brazil (averse to inflation), but positive to Japan (averse to deflation). Alternatively, higher real interest rates would reduce Japanese production, but would not affect Brazil. Given the inflationary/deflationary history of these countries, nominal monetary expansion would only boost Japan, generating negative impacts in Brazil. Despite this, a real monetary expansion would benefit both. Inflation proved to be harmful to Brazil, but benign to Japan. Still, volatility would be disadvantageous for both. In the fiscal sphere, both would benefit from increased public spending and valued stocks. Debt, on the other hand, would favor Brazil, but it could harm Japan. In general, the effect of monetary policies is believed to depend on the level of aversion to inflation.