Avaliação longitudinal do processo de mudança produtiva nos BRIC’s: 1995-2009

Abstract

A topic discussed since the 1960s, and gained more prominence from 1990 refers to the possibility of deindustrialization in which much of the economies would be passing. The so-called deindustrialization or post-industrialization began in the 1970s in developed countries and in the years 1980 and 1990 in developing countries. The literature commonly characterize the deindustrialization by loss of continuous employment participation in the industrial sector, as well as the loss of participation in employment and industrial production in relation to total output. This process is considered natural as the development goes through distinct phases, reaching a level where the industry relative importance declines over the gain importance of the service sector. In developing countries, this process is considered premature by several authors, since the deindustrialization is taking place at a very low level of income, in which case, the industry is still fundamental to the dynamism of the economy. Thus, this study sought to determine the industrial sector in a different perspective of that has been used when it comes to industrialization / deindustrialisation. The objective is to analyze the systemic character of the industrial sector from the input-output method using indicators of direct intensity and more indirect direct intensive industry. These indicators show the strength of the industrial sector in the production of different sectors of the economy by checking how the industry is used as intermediate input for other productive sectors, as well as by the final demand. The sectors are grouped according to technological intensity (lower and higher technology) in order to verify the changes of technology standards that have occurred over the years. We used the input-output matrices constructed by WIOD (Input-Output World Database) from 1995 to 2009 for the group of countries that make up the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). During this period, these economies showed high growth rates, starting to be seen as a major force in the global economy. The period was also marked by liberalizing reforms that become more open about international trade. Despite similar characteristics, the group is heterogeneous, with China leading in terms of growth and a country that maintains a growing industrialization, contrary to what is observed with the rest of the countries that lose industry participation in the product. It was noticed by the results that China and Russia have a more integrated industrial sector to the rest of the economy that Brazil and India, which have fall industry intensity in various sectors thus supporting the hypothesis of deindustrialization.