Determinantes da volatilidade do investimento direto estrangeiro no setor terciário brasileiro: uma abordagem empírica

Abstract

In view of the instability in the entry of Direct Investment in the Country (IDP) in recent years, specifically in the Brazilian services sector, this study aims to analyze the volatility determinants of this foreign investment in the tertiary sector in Brazil, in the period of January 2000 to February 2018. For this purpose, the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model) model was used to estimate the volatility of the IDP, and then the VEC (Vector Error Correction) model was used to test the relationship between the volatility of the IDP and its possible determinants. The results obtained showed that the entry of IDP in the sector under analysis showed volatility peaks, especially after periods of national and international events, in addition, it was found that such variability is determined in greater sensitivity by the inflation rate, followed by the exchange rate , commercial opening, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the interest differential. These results show the importance of measures that guarantee the stability of macroeconomic factors, such as sustainable GDP growth and controlled inflation, and also that promote greater opening of the national economy, to reduce the volatility in the entry of IDP in the Brazilian services sector.