Um estudo da propagação geográfica da dengue no Peru

Abstract

Dengue is a disease caused by an arbovirus and its main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The tropical and subtropical regions are the natural habitat of the mosquito, which each year invades new regions making them endemic. Dengue has affected most countries in Asia and Latin America being one of the main causes of hospitalization and death of children and adults. In this paper we study mathematical models for the transmission of dengue, we also present the dimensionless of mathematical models and a method for determining the bassal reproducibility number, R0, through the next generation matrix. In addition, we propose modifications to an epidemiological model that considers a network of n cities, which are connected by the road network, and in each of the n cities we have the SI dynamics for the migrating mosquito population and a SIR dynamics for the fixed residence human population. We then sought to describe the geographic spread of dengue and mosquito in Peru and find the possible path that the disease took to reach the northern region of Ayacucho, which is located in the interior of the country. The results of the simulations are compatible with the historical data collected.