Modelagem de nicho climático de toxoplasma gondii (Nicolle & Manceaux, 1908) (Apicomplexa, Sarcocystidae) associado a animais de produção e animais silvestres no Brasil: potenciais riscos a conservação e saúde pública

Abstract

Toxoplasmosis is a disease caused by the parasite Toxoplasma gondii (Nicolle & Manceaux, 1908) (Apicomplexa, Sarcocystidae), a protozoan heteroxene that hosts all warm-blooded animals, including humans, but the felines are their definitive hosts. T. gondii infections cause losses of billions per year in breeding systems, since this parasite affects the reproduction of these animals, as well as being a major public health problem and conservation of wild species. Due to its wide distribution worldwide, it occupies different habitats, and little is known about the environmental factors that affect the distribution of this parasite. Thus, the objective of this work was to model the fundamental niche of T. gondii associated with wild animals and and from this niche to carry out future niche projections in different scenarios of climate change, in order to verify possible areas of suitability suffering retraction or expansion. For this, a climatic niche modeling was performed using the Maxent algorithm. The validation and calibration of the models were performed within the algorithm itself (AUC> 0.70). The bioclimatic variables were taken from the Worldclim world database, treated in the Qgis software, transformed into raster layers, selected after the correlation test and inserted into the model. All models were validated with values above 0.70. In relation to the fundamental niche, Toxoplasma gondii occupies the all Brazilian territory, with more intense areas, as is the case in the North and Northeast regions. In the South region, the niche is more restricted to the association with the swine, whereas in the North and Northeast regions are associated to all the other production animals and wild animals. Results from future projections point to the Eastern region of the country as the area of greatest suitability for the occurrence of toxoplasmosis, becoming an area that requires more attention, especially when dealing with wild animals, since the Amazon biome, throughout the North, is rich and biodiverse, and this parasite can directly affect the conservation of native species of the region. Results from future projections point to the Eastern region of the country as the area of greatest suitability for the occurrence of toxoplasmosis, becoming an area that requires more attention, especially when dealing with wild animals, since the Amazon biome, throughout the North, is rich and biodiverse, and this parasite can directly affect the conservation of native species of the region. We conclude that the areas of greater suitability for toxoplasmosis in relation to the fundamental niche and the projected niche deserve greater attention and greater incentive to control, treat and appropriately manage the animals of this region, aiming at the conservation of wild species, reduction of economic losses associated with damage to reproduction of productive animals and prophylaxis of the disease in humans.