Influência das variáveis de confiança no Presidente da república e icei no mercado de capitais: uma aplicação do modelo var

Abstract

In a very turbulent political reality, many complain about the economic recessions. At- tempting to quantify the impact of popular opinion on the economy from the president’s person, this paper uses time-series auto-regressive econometric model to try to predict the impact of variables such as confidence index on the industrial entrepreneurs and trust in the president, as well as industrial revenue to improve the model’s accuracy, on the B3’s INDX index at open Market. The paper was restrict to industrial sector as an attempt to limit the broadness of data increasing chances of a representative result. To that, all methodology of VAR’s correct use was applied with satisfactory results.