Investimento estrangeiro, fluxo de capital e estrutura produtiva: ensaios sobre os efeitos do prêmio de risco para os países do BRICS e União Europeia

Abstract

Foreign investment flow takes up large space in the international economic literature since the 1990s, while international movement intensified and provided financial integration between countries. The increase of international capital mobility made foreign investment part of the total national saving, this contributed to gross capital formation and economic growth ever since. At this point, developing economies – like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) – benefited from financial integration. However, regional risks contribute to reversal investment flow towards relatively safer economies, changing production, trade and growth trends. Immersed in this discussion, this thesis examines the effects of changes in the perceived risk of investment in BRICS and European Union, through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), base year 2011, and its extensions. Exploring the model structure, it intends to fill the research gap about the sectoral and macroeconomic effects, which consider the global interrelationships trade, of policies that culminate in regional risk for the foreign investor. The results indicate that those policies can alter the global investment allocation to safer regions such as United States and European Union. Thus, the sectoral impacts are more intense in activities that are comparatively more exposed to international trade, because there is impact on the competitiveness of domestic products. While the possibility of endogenous reordering the investor's portfolio, in relation to the location of the investment, softens the losses from increased regional risk. The results still show that policies of risk elimination policies provide trends of GDP growth and investment above that projected for a risk scenario.