Efeitos da comunicação e transparência do Banco Central do Brasil sobre as expectativas do público

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the effect of BCB transparency on private agents' inflation expectations. The work is divided into two chapters. The first chapter investigates the effect of BCB inflation forecast disclosure on private agents' inflation expectations. The results show that the release of BCB inflation forecasts contributes to reduce the disagreement between BCB and private agents' perspectives on future inflation. This is especially true as the forecast horizon increases. Additionally, the second chapter assesses how BCB opacity affects public expectations for future inflation. The perform this analysis, a theoretical model, based on Walsh (2003) and De Mendonça and Simão Filho (2007), is built in order to highlight the relationship between BCB inflation forecasts, BCB opacity and public expectations. for inflation. Thus, econometric estimates are made by OLS and GARCH (1,1). These estimates show the influence of inflation forecasts and BCB opacity on inflation expectations. The results obtained are important to justify the need for BCB's constant improvement of its reporting process and transparency through the publication of its inflation forecasts.