Modelagem de nicho climático da espécie exótica invasiva Achatina fulica Bowdich, 1822 (Gastropoda, Achatinidae) no Brasil

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on biodiversity are of particular interest because of the possible effects on species distribution and loss. We are currently seeing a major breakthrough in the development of analytical tools and theoretical models that allow for more refined ecological modeling studies, integrating data from independent studies or information contained in biodiversity databases. In this context, climate niche modeling may represent useful tools for predicting the distribution of exotic species and the possible impacts on native diversity. Achatina fulica Bowdich, 1822, a species popularly known as the African giant snail, is included in the ranking of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, once introduced in different places outside its native area, presents an extraordinary adaptation and dispersion. This species can still act as an intermediate host of parasites of medical and veterinary importance, such as the nematodes Angiostrongylus varsorum, A. cantonensis and A. costaricencis. The objective of the present work was to evaluate the potential distribution of Achatina fulica in its native area (Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya) and invaded (Brazil) under current conditions using the maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to predict its invasion potential in Brazil and to develop a risk map of areas likely to be invaded in the future, identifying bioclimatic factors that contribute to the invasion of this species and thus use tools for prioritization and effective management of the species for Brazil. The study area included all Brazilian states and native areas of eastern eastern Africa. All presence records were compiled by county of the states of Brazil and Africa in a Microsoft Excel database. In the world-wide WorldClim database, historical climate data were used "variables of the present" (1970-2000) and "variables of the future" (until 2050). For the model of climatic niche, the MaxEnt algorithm was used. There were 476 records of the occurrence of the species in a non - native area in Brazil and 27 records in the native area of the species in Africa. In the present study, we observed that A. fulica is already found in all 26 states of Brazil and the Federal District, so monitoring and predicting the potential effects of global climate change on its distribution is essential for potential interventions aimed at the management of this species.