Cidades atrativas: determinantes da migração municipal no Brasil

Abstract

Population migration affects both the labor supply and the domestic demand for goods and services. Therefore, understanding the factors that attract migrants to specific locations is essential for public/private planning and local well-being. Thus, this study investigated the determinants of net-migration flows across Brazilian municipalities, identifying the local characteristics that influence internal migration. After calculating net-migration for 5,498 municipalities - aggregated over the 2000–2010 and 2010–2022 periods using census data - by subtracting natural population growth from observed population change, a spatial-panel model was employed to measure the effects of population profile, economic attractiveness, local infrastructure, amenities, and travel costs on migration. The results indicate that migrants prefer smaller and more urbanized municipalities with better healthcare infrastructure, economies less dependent on the public sector, and greater job-creation capacity, as well as coastal locations with mild climates. Finally, the estimated coefficients were used to project municipal migration trends for 2022–2032, revealing a potential exodus from the Northeast—particularly Bahia— and a migratory preference for coastal towns in the South and Southeast regions.