Uma estimação da curva de phillips para os Estados Unidos e Zona do Euro no período pós-crise subprime: uma aplicação do modelo ARDL

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the Phillips Curve for the post-subprime crisis period (2010–2025) in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA), using quarterly data and following the approach proposed by Blanchard, Cerutti, and Summers (2015). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was selected as the estimation method. The results indicate that agents’ expectations play a crucial role in the inflationary dynamics, particularly in the US. With regard to demand forces, the model provides evidence that the slope of the Phillips Curve is not statistically significant in either region, which may be attributed to the time span considered, the importance of supply- side pressures—especially at the peak of the health crisis—and the consistent monetary policies implemented by central banks to ensure the convergence of inflation toward its target. Concerning supply forces, the estimates suggest that they were important components of inflation throughout the period for both the US and EA.