Análise dos efeitos da política monetária sobre a arrecadação do ICMS de Minas Gerais

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of monetary policy, represented by the Selic interest rate, on industrial production and ICMS tax revenue in Minas Gerais from 2003Q1 to 2022Q4. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly series for the Selic rate, industrial production indicators, and aggregate and sectoral ICMS revenues is employed in order to capture the main transmission channels of monetary policy to the state tax base. The results indicate that contractionary interest rate shocks are associated with a slowdown in industrial production and a reduction in ICMS revenues, with differentiated impacts across the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors, highlighting the relevance of monetary policy for the public finances of Minas Gerais under an inflation‐targeting regime.