Acesso ao ensino superior e crescimento econômico: uma análise internacional

Abstract

This paper estimates an aggregate production function to investigate the relationship between higher education expansion and per capita output growth in a sample of 45 countries from 2012 to 2022. Using Fixed Effects panel data methodology, the study assesses whether human capital accumulation, measured by tertiary enrollment rates, significantly impacts income when controlled for global time trends. Econometric results indicate that while education shows a positive correlation with output in the level model, its statistical significance is absorbed by the inclusion of the time trend, suggesting that exogenous technical progress and institutional evolution explain most of the income variation in the period. Descriptive analysis reveals that Brazil, despite showing enrollment growth rates higher than the OECD and dynamic Asia averages, did not convert this expansion into proportional productivity gains. It is concluded that mere quantitative access expansion is insufficient to overcome the middle-income trap, requiring greater integration between the educational system and the productive sector’s demand for innovation.