Comparação de abordagens econométricas alternativas para modelagem da demanda anual de eletricidade no Brasil nos segmentos residencial, industrial e comercial

Abstract

Electricity is an input of widespread use in modern economies, penetrating in the most varied productive and consumption activities in society. However, the difficulties of large-scale storage make electricity very sensitive to supply conditions, to the point that supply problems quickly turns into blackouts. Among several devices implemented in the re-structuring of the Brazilian electricity sector (SEB) over the last 17 years, medium and long-term forecasting systems are used by public and private sector agents to reduce the uncertainties of the supply processes and expansion. ANEEL recommend in NT 292/2008-SER the use of three alternative multivariate methodologies in these prediction systems, namely: VAR and VCE models, autoregressive models with distributed lags (ARDL), and state space structural models. The specialized literature, despite the presence of several studies proposing models of prediction of the consumption of electricity for the three residential, industrial and commercial segments, mainly presents models of type VAR and VCE. This study updates the literature regarding the use of VAR and VCE models and at the same time compares them in predictive terms with the ARDL and structural state space models. The results found in the predictive model analysis showed that for the residential segment, the model with the best predictive capacity was the structural model, while for the commercial segment it was the VCE model and, for the industrial segment, it was the ARDL model. Forecasts from 2014 to 2025 were made with the intention of informing the Brazilian market the energy demand for each segment. Available and updated databases from the same sources used in literature studies were used.