Avaliação de ativos alavancados sob risco

Abstract

Whereas the methods of valuation of companies and assets used nowadays are based on risk-free debt assumption, overlooking the side effects of debt and not estimating the fair return on unlevered equity by other means than Hamada (1969), which is based on debt without risk, evaluation of leveraged assets at risk may suffer a bias that distances the calculated value of the assets of its real market value. Thus, it is extremely important to study the cost of debt, considered the possibilities of default and other risks embedded in it and hence their impact on equity costs. This thesis aims to answer the following question: in a context of risky debt risk, estimated from the cost of capital and systemic risk of leveraged equity, observable in the market, how return on unlevered equity; the weighted average cost of capital of the firm; and the value of the firm differ from those calculated without considering the risk of debt properly? From a detailed analysis of the Stock Assessment Processes presented in Valuation Reports disclosed to selected companies (Braskem and NET), it was estimated the cost of debt from the historical returns of stocks and Cooper and Davydenko model (2007) applied; after that, we estimated the debt beta from the regression of the number of estimated debt costs in relation to the market risk premium; we calculated the unlevered beta in systematic risk debt framework; we estimated the fair return of unlevered equity; we calculated the value of the analyzed companies and its share price by methods of FCFF / WACC, APV and CCF; and then compared the value found with the value provided by conventional valuation models that do not consider the effect of expected default in the cost of debt, with the market price and with the book value per share. We concluded that, the use of more robust models can theoretically contribute to a better assessment of the fair value of an asset, project or firm.