Integração de modelos econométrico e de insumo-produto para previsões de longo prazo da demanda de energia no Brasil

Abstract

The paper presents an econometric+input-output model for long-run forecasting of energy consumption by sector in Brazil. Yearly forecasts are produced for 2005-2010. The approach integrates a time series econometric model with an input-output model. A relevant result is a connection established between vector autoregressive models with or without error correction mechanisms and closed or open input-output models. Two forecasting scenarios are set-up: an expansionist scenario that predicts a faster economic growth; and a damped scenario that predicts a smoothed growth. In the more likely case of the expansionist scenario, expectations are confirmed that energy shortage will take place from 2009 on, thus before the end of the decade. Directions for further research on methodology improvements are considered at the end.