Exportações e consumo de energia elétrica: uma análise baseada na integração de modelos econométricos e de insumo-produto inter-regional para Minas Gerais e o restante do Brasil

Abstract

The main aim of this research is to quantify sectorial, regional and global impacts upon electric energy consumption when variations at exports component of Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil occurs. In order to reach this aim it will be used an integration of econometric time series and input-output models. To reach this objective is necessary to construct an econometric model that explains Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil exports. The econometric model will enable the implementation of projections for the years 2007 to 2010. After that, these projections will be integrated to the hybrid interregional input-output model to verify how much will be the global and sectorial impacts in electric energy consumption. For this, updates in interregional input-output matrices for Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil were made. The data base was the interregional input-output matrix for Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil (BDMG e FIPE, 2002) referring to year 1996, data about national and regional accounts from IBGE (2007) and Brazilian estimated input-output matrices by Guilhoto and Sesso Filho (2005). This present research contributes to the related methodology and its application allows the analysis of which sectors consumes higher quantities of electric energy in intra and interregional terms, and also shows that all economy sectors consumes higher quantities of electric energy over the years.