As múltiplas tendências da terciarização: uma análise insumo produto da expansão do setor de serviços

Abstract

The expansion of the tertiary sector, known as tertiarization, was a process that produces multiple trends and sectoral composition between developed and developing countries. Given the magnitude of the expansion of services is of paramount importance to know the factors that operate in this direction, and understand the impacts of this movement for the development of the Brazilian economy. In this context, this study aimed to develop a diagnostic of the tertiarization process in Brazil with focus on changes in final and intermediate demand, and productivity differentials. The results were compared to economies chosen as a reference – United States and United Kingdom – in order to identify development opportunities for Brazilian tertiary. To this end, we used input-output data matrices and the following applications: production and employment multipliers; index of backward and forward linkages and identification of key sectors; field of influence; structural decomposition analysis and total factor productivity. Noteworthy are the following results: the growth of services is motivated by several factors, and the increase in final demand, particularly household consumption, is the mainly responsible for the expansion of the production of services, ii) in general terms, the services sector in Brazil has a lower degree of integration with the rest of the economy, and has the lower labor productivity growth in relation to economies of reference, and iii) the use of current price data overestimates the productivity of the service sector due to the "cost disease".