Fechados com Bolsonaro? Uma análise das candidaturas bolsonaristas em nível municipal

Abstract

This master’s dissertation focuses on the relationship between prominent far-right figures in national politics and their impact on municipal candidacies. To this end, the research investigated whether the defeat of former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro in 2022 brought about any strategic changes in municipal campaigns aligned with bolsonarism, both in the executive and legislative branches. The study examined two distinct moments: the 2020 and 2024 elections in the municipalities of Juiz de Fora and Divinópolis, in the state of Minas Gerais. Two candidates were selected for the case of Juiz de Fora—one running for the executive and another for the legislative—and one executive candidate from Divinópolis. Using case study research techniques, two distinct dimensions of each candidacy were explored. The first consisted of data collection from the candidates’ official social media accounts, with a qualitative analysis of all posts published throughout the periods authorized for electoral campaigning in both elections. The second stage of the research involved fieldwork and direct observation of the candidates during their street campaigns. The research employed both qualitative and quantitative methods. Two hypotheses guided the study. The first argues that municipal elections follow their own logic, in which national leaders and issues have limited influence, leading candidates to prioritize local concerns and reduce the centrality of references to bolsonarism. The second hypothesis is based on the idea that bolsonarism has a certain degree of autonomy from the figure of Bolsonaro himself, remaining as a set of values and discourses capable of persisting and adapting even after his departure from power. In this sense, his electoral defeat could have produced both strategic shifts and the reinforcement of certain farright themes and agendas. Thus, the study aimed to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of continuity and transformation of bolsonarism at the municipal level after 2022. The research identified indications of political autonomy in relation to Bolsonaro’s figure, even among those candidates most engaged in mobilizing his themes and political agenda.