Modelos de previsão de recalques em aterros sanitários: revisão bibliográfica e análise crítica das abordagens, parâmetros e desempenho

Abstract

Settlement prediction in municipal solid waste landfills represents a significant challenge for geotechnical engineering due to the high heterogeneity of the waste and the interaction among mechanical, hydraulic, biological, thermal, and gas-related processes over time. These settlements may compromise the stability of the waste mass, the integrity of drainage systems, the performance of the final cover, and the service life of landfills, making a critical understanding of the models used for their estimation essential. In this context, this study aimed to consolidate a critical overview of the settlement prediction models for landfills reported in the literature. The research was conducted based on searches in the Scopus database, followed by the selection, screening, full-text reading, and systematization of studies related to the subject. At the end of the process, 51 articles were analyzed and organized according to the predominant modeling approach, including empirical, constitutive, numerical, and coupled formulations. The results revealed a progressive evolution of the methodologies, ranging from simplified models based on the fitting of field data to approaches capable of integrating mechanical, hydraulic, biodegradation, and thermal processes. Prediction accuracy was found to depend strongly on calibration using local data, the quality of input parameters, the availability of long-term monitoring data, and the adequate representation of biodegradation, moisture, gas generation, and temperature. It was also found that the high spatial and temporal variability of municipal solid waste, the scarcity of representative experimental data, and the difficulty of generalizing the models remain important limitations. It is concluded that model selection should consider the purpose of the analysis, data availability, the required level of complexity, and the specific conditions of the landfill. Therefore, the expansion of monitoring programs and the adoption of standardized procedures for parameter determination are recommended.