Violência letal no Rio Grande do Norte (2015–2025): análise espaço-temporal dos crimes violentos letais intencionais

Abstract

This article examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of Intentional Lethal Violent Crimes (CVLI) in the state of Rio Grande do Norte from 2015 to 2025, based on the analysis of public data produced by the national public security statistics system. The research adopts a quantitative, descriptive-analytical approach, combining time-series analysis, the calculation of standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, and graphical representation of the evolution of the indicators throughout the historical series. The main objective is to analyze the temporal evolution of lethal violence in the state, identifying trends, fluctuations, and possible changes in the level of CVLI incidence over the period analyzed. The results indicate that the dynamics of lethal violence show a non-linear pattern, marked by cycles of growth, decline, and relative stabilization, as well as a strong territorial concentration in certain urban areas. The analysis shows that intentional homicide constitutes the main component of lethal violence in the state and that the variations observed in the historical series reflect significant changes in the intensity of recorded cases over the decade. The analytical potential of using standardized public data to produce empirical diagnoses of lethal violence and to strengthen evidence-based public security approaches is also discussed. It is concluded that the systematic use of historical series based on official data constitutes a relevant tool for monitoring violent crime and improving public security management at the state level.